In a prior post, I provided a brief history of the oracle-Retek-SAP bidding contest in the context of prior M&A studies by two well-known management consulting firms.

I am starting to formulate my opinions on how this will shake out, not based on what is best for shareholders - I'm too far from the situation to know about that. That said, what the companies announce and don't announce can be telling when taken in context of where the deal is at (my prior post) and presuming that Oracle, SAP, and Retek management are all smart (which is what I presume). Recent position by SAP's CEO is covered in a release by Reuters,

SAP does not need to buy U.S. software maker Retek, its chief executive told Reuters, after its half-billion dollar bid for Retek was trumped by rival Oracle this week.

"Retek was, is, a firm that meets our requirements, and we made an attractive offer. It's not the only possibility," Henning Kagermann said in an interview. "It's not that we have a hole in our company that we necessarily must fill." SAP has not yet said whether it will enter into a bidding war with its U.S. rival since Oracle made its surprise, $525-million bid on Tuesday -- more than a week after SAP said Retek's board had accepted its $496-million cash offer.

It is also imporant to note what analysts are saying about which is better for who. Whether you believe the analysts - who knows. That said, it is noteworthy to see if each firm supports, refutes, refines, or ignores what each analyst says.

Steve Shu