Although I think most of us realize that the traditional IT department is not quite as much under attack from outsourcing, SaaS, and social networking pressures as various pundits (this pundit included) make it seem, it is nonetheless clear that the times, they are a changing for corporate IT and for CIOs. While this has manifested in practical terms only as some vague, statistically questionable reverses in status (say, more CIOs going back down the ladder to report up to the CFO than directly to the CEO), the fact is that many CIOs can see the writing on the wall quite clearly and a whopping 77% of respondents in the recent Harvey Nash CIO survey don't expect to be with their current employer in as little as five years. This just about reverses the current numbers, where nearly 75% of CIOs have been with their current employer that long.

This harkens back to the late nineties, when the position was first becoming common, and the industry was in great flux brought about by the rise of web technologies. Will SaaS and other transformative technologies lead to a similar perturbation? I think it's likely. Unfortunately, this may well have the effect of shortening the era of the CIO even faster; as Paul Strassman of ComputerWorld pointed out as long ago as 2004, short-term CIOs are incentivized to make choices that look good in the short-term… not necessarily the best thing for the long-term strategic interests of their companies. Even as CIOs see more opportunity to contribute strategically, their own outlook may militate against trusting them in that capacity.

When you pit all of this against increasing pressures to eliminate the role entirely in favor of utility model IT services, you can well understand the angst among CIOs and executive IT staff. If the job pool may be diminishing and the attractions of the position with regard to the importance in the company fading, angst may be the reasonable response: some people are going to be left out in the industry game of musical chairs, just as many were at the end of the dot-com implosion.

I think there is reason for some optimism, however. While there will be an old-guard of CIOs who fight advances diminishing their budget and scope tooth and nail, just as I watched many dot-com era CIOs lavishly spend their way into the ground in 1999 and 2000, there will be those who find ways to stay ahead of the curve and adapt their positions to best fulfill the requirements of the business. The good news is that with the plethora of options springing up for meeting IT needs, companies now more than ever need solid strategic technology advice. And some of them may actually begin to understand that they need it, which has always been the other half of the battle. While consultants will happily step in and point out their advantages in this situation, the fact is that a reliable, loyal, unbiased CIO on staff will be much better positioned to aid businesses as they struggle to turn new technologies into real strategic advantages.