A Goldman Sachs survey of CIOs indicates the likelihood of significant decreases in IT jobs, both with in-house and contract staff, as well as low demand for utility or "cloud" computing services which may also indicate fewer jobs among outsourcing providers.

The study, cited in this ComputerWorld article, is based on a survey of Fortune 1000 CIOs, who have indicated that contractors and consultants are among the first things on the chopping block for 2009 as their budgets become constrained and the search for ROI becomes more pressing in IT projects. That is, after all, the benefit of contractors, who are the cannon fodder of the industry, retained in many cases with the very idea that they may be easily let go at the first sign of economic turmoil. The article goes on, however, to suggest that outsourced service providers and cutting edge technologies will not be seeing much corporate investment in 2009, either. This is less supportable in conventional wisdom; you may scale back your volume of outsourced work (although, in the event, this usually happens at a much lower rate than forecast, as unexpected issues come up and outsourced providers are usually the fastest and easiest way to address them without increasing internal headcount) for a time, but the relationships with the providers become more important than ever.

One reason for the low priorities of grid computing, open-source software and cloud computing may be that CIOs and business executives don't understand their value. "They require a technical understanding to get to their importance. I don't think C-level executives and managers have that understanding," King said.

It may also be that analysts tend to overestimate their value. While I think many of those technologies have a bright, and perhaps even inevitable, future in the industry, at this point, their business value is not well-understood or easily demonstrated. CIOs aren't being dim in lagging on their adoption, they are being responsible.

I am also given to wonder if this is all simply the effect of a lagging economy, or if perhaps that is simply the immediate impetus to make a transition that has long been needed in some IT shops. The fact is, technology has been getting more reliable and more closely aligned with business interests over the past decade. Many IT departments are over-invested in staff and equipment at this point. It isn't necessarily a shop where constant failure and dramatic experimentation are required anymore for forward progress. It's possible for many CIOs in many industries to sit on proven systems and technology, trimming and perfecting them, for some time while others forge a path in new and exciting directions instead, from which they will then reap the benefits at some later date. This isn't an excuse to be oblivious or disdainful of industry trends, but it could well prompt one to provide the sorts of answers that Goldman Sachs received, without actually holding the views that Goldman Sachs attributes.