RSSIBM versus who?
IBM's announcement today of their Lotus Live iNotes hosted e-mail service (like just about everyone else, they're calling it a "cloud" service; it's not, at least not in any meaningful way that I can see, just plain old Software as a Service… not that there is anything wrong with that) has punditry in a tither. Well, it's a low-grade tither, anyway. I guess there isn't enough caffeine flowing yet, or maybe it's just that IBM doesn't seem to be tremendously threatening to anyone as the pace of these Internet based offerings becomes more and more rapid. At any rate, it's not about the service itself, which IBM claims already hosts some 18 million mail accounts; no, instead the important thing everyone is trying to gauge is whether Big Blue is gunning for Microsoft, or Google, with this offering. Maybe both.
IBM claims the service is aimed particularly at the SMB market, which might mean the target is Google, whose Gmail has seen the greatest adoption in that segment. But then Microsoft's hosted mail and collaboration offerings are closer in features to the Notes suite, so maybe IBM is going after them in the enterprise arena. Or both! Who can say?
I think the real news is that if you like Notes and you are a fan of scalable SaaS solutions, there is finally a well-supported hosted Notes solution at a reasonable price ($3 per user per month; right in line with both Microsoft's pricing for the Deskless Worker Suite and Google's Premier Apps pricing) available for you. Companies have been able to cut deals for rudimentary web-based e-mail service hosting in a pseudo-SaaS model for a decade now, and hosted Exchange solutions have been available and trustworthy for at least the last three years. But if you were a fan of the Notes flavor of collaborative communications, and there is a small but significant subset of you out there, you've been out of luck. Well, welcome to the game! Maybe LA needs to add this to the menu in the apocalyptic battle for control of its e-mail services.
I’m not sure IBM can win in the SaaS market, especially if they are going after the SMB space. Read more of our thoughts:
http://www.rackspace.com/email_hosting/blog/2009/10/ibm-another-big-isv-tries-their-hand-at-saas/
I agree completely, if for slightly different reasons. I think most of the problems you note are germane to any established vendor attempting to shift strategy while in motion. IBM, however, has the additional challenge of having too much bureaucracy to adapt quickly (which the SaaS market requires). It also is traditionally off-putting to the small business, as evidenced by Big Blue’s repeated disappointments in that market.
A more interesting case study will be Microsoft’s efforts in the same genre. Microsoft, in contrast, has been wildly successful in the SMB market historically even as they have increased their enterprise penetration. They are also long-time fans of recurring revenue streams, indeed trying to push such schemes well before the mass market was ready for them. However they are also facing the cannabilization problem you note, and to a degree that few other ISVs (including IBM) could claim. But their track record is replete with instances of adversity being overcome, so it will be extremely interesting to see how they deal with the hurdles you blogged about.
IBM, and Notes, will continue to play the niche role they currently occupy, albeit in a hosted form.