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Market Perturbations
by Scott Wilson on January 13, 2010

© Philip Jägenstedt
So I was one of those under a rock yesterday when Google brought to light news that it had been attacked (most likely by the Chinese government, although this was not explicitly stated) in efforts to uncover communications made by Chinese human rights activists and political dissidents. The bombshell was not necessarily that information itself, but rather the company's response, which takes the unheard of steps of both publicizing this open secret, and stopping cooperation with the Chinese authorities in censoring the localized Google website, Google.cn.
This is cast in terms of the company's oft-mentioned, little-followed dictum of "Don't be evil," insinuating that this new discovery of monitoring and active penetration attempts has been uncovered as a result of careful monitoring by Google of the human rights situation in China. Pulling the censorship provides a certain visceral kick for human rights activists, who see it as being broadly attached to the overall pattern of abuse by the Communist government.
This isn't necessarily as altruistic as it may seem; although China represents a significant frontier for any Western technology company, and though Google would certainly have put up a fight for market share there, the fact is that Baidu has been smoking Google.cn for the past few years there, and walking away from a losing fight on principle may actually be more about making good business decisions than standing on the principle itself. Although many Western companies struggle with Chinese governmental restrictions on their operations, the idea that the government itself may be directly attacking your services and customers sort of puts the idea of a level competitive field right out the window. Is it worth continuing to try to force your way into a market facing that sort of uneven opposition?
The company already blew one call when they dumped their investment in Baidu in '06, gambling that they could compete and win against the native firm. They have not done so and maybe it was starting to look obvious that good money was going after bad in the competition. TechCrunch has more, and more nuanced, thoughts on this perspective.
Nonetheless, these are not either/or questions, and Google may be hitting two birds with one stone. Though a public company, and as susceptible to shareholders as any other, I genuinely believe that leadership would like to operate benevolently and altruistically. They were, and remain, susceptible to systemic evils, of course, but just because a moral decision is made easier by circumstances, it doesn't make it any less moral (you might want to check with a philosophy major on the matter, of course, but that's my take).
Some people already see this as merely a massive bluff, or as a no-lose proposition for the business as it faces stiff and unfair competition in the market. Perhaps it is. Personally, I would like to see Google take it a step further: don't just pull out of China; declare war.
The Chinese market is huge and it's taken for granted that a permissive entry into it is the key to success. But if the government is already fighting your "permissive" operation, does it really do you much good to kow-tow in hopes that they'll allow you a few more crumbs at the table?
Google could win massive PR points (which aren't, admittedly, worth much) and, possibly, greater market success by not simply pulling out of China, but actively attempting to subvert the Chinese government and Baidu. Other bloggers already point out the general availability of uncensored search results to Chinese citizens on Google.com (as opposed to the unblocked Google.cn site that is being discussed here) via VPN or proxy connections outside the country. Google has been, at best, indifferent to these methods of circumvention, a stance that has not endeared them to Chinese authorities. What if now they took it a step further, and went from indifference to active support? If the Chinese government is blocking access to the massive Chinese market, and you think it is lucrative, why not go after it directly?
Attack from overseas! Encourage and disseminate information for the circumvention of the "Great Firewall." Put up your own proxies, free VPN systems, publicize them, actively encourage Chinese citizens to go around the government and access Western sources (through Google, of course). Google claims to have been attacked; the best response (according to Sun Tzu!) is to counter-attack. Don't pull out (except officially); dig in, fight dirty.
Could this work? Would it result in massive international problems? I have no idea... it's just a thought. But it would indicate a much stronger commitment to "doing no evil" than Google has ever managed to signal in the past. And having watched Apple, almost inadvertently, subvert strong IT controls in the corporate world simply by the presence of the iPhone, and seeing so many Web 2.0 based businesses worm almost effortlessly in under corporate and governmental radars to reach the masses, I have little doubt that if Google put the mass of resources available to it to work, it could find legitimate, ongoing success in China... without the permission or approval of the Chinese government.
13JAN10 - 1233PDT Update:
Just based on some of the (quite possibly non-representative) Tweets that have been translated today it looks as if there might be a significant opportunity for Google to win immediate converts to such a guerilla approach, were it done while passions remain high and protestations of undying love for the company still being professed by Chinese users.
Permalink: Go on the attack, Google!
Trackback: http://publish.creative-weblogging.com/publish/mt-tb.pl/170412
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